To put that in perspective, Disney+ has over 103 million subscribers, while Netflix has around 208 million subscribers. After a financial scandal tarnished the Kinney brand, they became Warner Communications in 1972. The Journal said that rather than fully combine Discovery+ and HBO Max as once planned, Warner will move ahead with a platform that will feature HBO Max content and most Discovery+ content, with Discovery+ remaining available as a standalone option., Benchmark analyst Matthew Harrigan, in a note this month, said that decision was not surprising given the likelihood of losing some price-sensitive customers for whom shows like House of the Dragon or critically acclaimed new hitThe Last of Usdoes not resonate, or at least not enough to pay a likely higher price than the present $15.99/$9.99 (with ads) for HBO Max.. One is a relatively high rate of churn. It had been up as much as 9% in morning trading but has been in a Is this happening to you frequently? distribution of Spinco common stock to eligible AT&T shareholders as of record date), which occurs prior to completion of the WBD merger. However, I admit I have reservations regarding the companys debt load and financial prowess. Due diligence should be exercised and readers should engage in additional research and analysis before making their own investment decision. Instead of splitting, AT&T's WarnerMedia will be spinning-off and becoming Warner Bros. 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Market Realist is a registered trademark. (I update this score on at least a quarterly basis for readers.). Discovery has over 15 million paying streaming subscribers globally, while HBO and HBO Max reportedly have 64 million subscribers globally. Readers should consider their own unique investment profile and consider seeking advice from an investment professional before making an investment decision. Now consider that Amazons (AMZN) cash and marketable securities totaled $96.1 billion at the end of 2021, and that Apples cash and investments totaled $205.6 billion at the end of 1Q22. Latest Technology & Communications News and Updates. S&P rates WBDs debt as BBB-/positive, the lowest level of investment grade. To make the world smarter, happier, and richer. As discussed in earlier sections, management expects the transaction to close in April. Q1 operating profit and cash flow for WarnerMedia were clearly below my expectations. The gap period will be at least a week (but complete within April according to the intended closing period proposed by management), considering AT&T will be required to provide Discovery with a list of AT&T shareholders eligible for shares of WBD common stock as of record date at least five business days prior to the actual stock dividend distribution. The transformation weve undergone over the past 18 months while delivering outstanding operational results has brought us to this point. However, Warner Bros. Poorer than expected performance of late from WarnerMedia was also highlighted. Is DISCA stock a good buy after the AT&T merger news? DISCA stock looks like a good buy at the current prices. Revenue came in at $11 billion, compared with $3.19 billion in the prior-year quarter. If you bought shares of the S&P 500 ETF SPY as 2022 dawned, you are down around 10%. It's a busy time for Warner, who besides the Discovery merger are also reportedly in the market for a buyer for The CW, a network they co-own with Paramount, the parent company of CBS (and ComicBook.com). Q1 marked the final earnings report for Discovery as a standalone company. Now, after the merger is complete, we should look at the financials of the merged entity. Just a few years ago, the same team acquired and integrated Scripps Networks into Discovery. Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of DISCK either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. Warner Bros. Discoverys revenue fell short of expectations in Q4 as the company lost more than $2 billion on linear, streaming, & studio. Hogwarts Legacy launched on Feb. 10. Our analysis provides a deep dive on growth drivers present in the secular market to identify outperforming investments. AT&T and Discovery sound optimistic about the new company's outlook. If so, how? Of that, $15 billion will be generated by direct-to-consumer services. However, based on the stock's performance so far, it seems other shareholders have had different opinions about the value of the deal, including those who got shares without taking any action. Discovery, which has no dividend. My primary focus is on dividend bearing stocks. AT&T shareholders will own 71 percent of the merged firm, with Discovery shareholders owning the rest. All Rights Reserved. While most AT&T shareholders are income-focused, the WBD transaction could make an attractive one-time trade to capitalize on promising near-term upside potential resulting from a valuation re-rate event. Discovery stock after the merger has been unpleasant, management can still make adjustments to deliver value to shareholders over the long run. We will not launch any new markets for the time being. AT&T announced last week that April 5th at market close will be the record date for AT&T shareholders eligible for the special stock dividend pertaining to the upcoming WBD transaction. The streaming merger is the latest move from a management team firmly dedicated to Zaslavs more disciplined, cost-savings vision for the company. Many of the offers appearing on this site are from advertisers from which this website receives compensation for being listed here. The management team has plenty of experience executing mergers. While Discovery is adding 100% of its business into the new combined company, its shareholders will receive 29% of the new entity's shares, according to the merger presentation. We will be a simpler, more focused company with the intent to become Americas best broadband provider.. This compensation may impact how and where products appear on this site (including, for example, the order in which they appear). Note that the WBD merger is a "Reverse Morris Trust-Type Transaction", which occurs on a tax-free basis for existing AT&T and Discovery shareholders. Bret Kenwell. Earlier this year, the merger of AT&T 's ( T -0.57%) WarnerMedia with Discovery ( DISC.A) ( DISC.B) ( DISCK) was given the green light by U.S. regulators. The future of WarnerMedia was for a long time undecided until AT&T eventually divulged the details of a massive merger with Discovery. As discussed in detail in our last coverage, AT&T will spinoff 100% of its current interest in WarnerMedia post-close. More importantly, we believe 4Q is an opportunity for management to turn the page to 2023 and reset the narrative, BofA analysts said in a note last month. If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. The thinly traded shares (ticker: DISCB) that are 95% owned by media mogul and Discovery board member John Malone traded Tuesday at $68.88, down $1.02. Discovery, with Discovery shareholders holding the rest. Please note that I am in the process of planning a subscription service with Seeking Alpha's Marketplace. Since I require a discount in the share valuations of my investments, my ratings are generally very conservative. Warner bros bring sold to Discovery? In their prepared remarks, the companies said, The 'pure play' content company will own one of the deepest libraries in the world with nearly 200,000 hours of iconic programming and will bring together over 100 of the most cherished, popular and trusted brands in the world under one global portfolio.. This increased its subscriber numbers to 76.8 million. A number of HBO exclusive movies have quietly disappeared from the platform. Advertiser Disclosure: Many of the offers appearing on this site are from advertisers from which this website receives compensation for being listed here. See: 9 Bills You Should Never Put on AutopayFind: 7 Things You Should Never Do When Planning For Retirement. Boutique investment research shop providing professional coverage on disruptive thematic equities. have both fallen around 25%, and Netflix (. ) I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). Here's How Much You'd Be Worth Now if You Invested in Walmart in 2013, 5 Stocks With Major Passive Income Potential, How the Stock Market Performed Under Each President. Discovery, with Discovery shareholders holding the rest. Were it not for the effects of foreign exchange, International would have recorded a 30% increase. The Motley Fool recommends Warner Bros. AT&T shares fell in pre-market trading and were down 4.3 percent to $24.40 as of 7:45 a.m. Warner Bros. I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of DISCK either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. Please. Last week, AT&T confirmed April 5th at market close as the record date for the stock dividend related to the WarnerMedia spinoff. Discovery, Inc. His clients may own shares of the companies mentioned. The spinoff and dividend cut is probably the right long-term move for AT&T, as it will offload some $43 billion in debt to the new WarnerMedia company. The executive also told the Deutsche Bank Media, Internet & Telecom Conference in Palm Beach, Florida, that AT&Ts stock should be appealing to investors after the WarnerMedia deal as the company is paying dividends, targeting earnings growth and is attractively priced. -0.30% WBDWV Trading - AT&T shareholders who wish to dispose of their right to shares of WBD common stock post-close between April 4th and the WBD transaction completion date can engage in "WBDWV Trading". to the transaction, we have better refined our estimates. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). Discovery, will start Looking ahead within the studio, 2023 will be a pivotal year, particularly behind our larger and broader release slate at both Warner Bros. Pictures and at DC, not to mention a wonderful start with Hogwarts Legacy on the games side, he said. net asset value under U.S. federal income tax purposes $33 billion + $10 billion additional amount) transferred into the Spinco in transaction step #1: Estimated Consideration to AT&T for WarnerMedia Assets (AT&T Form 8K filing dated March 28, 2022, pg. AT&T) wishing to divest a subsidiary (i.e. 2023 The Hollywood Reporter, LLC. Discovery Stock Rises Following Merger Completion, Ricou Browning, Star of Creature From the Black Lagoon, Dies at 93, It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia Teases Gritty Cameo, Pokemon Cosplay Celebrates Misty's Anime Comeback, Burger King Adding Spicy Chicken Fries to Menu, Jon Hamm Reportedly Engaged to Mad Men Co-Star Anna Osceola, Josh Gad Takes Over as Jungle Cruise Skipper at Disneyland, AMC Theatres to Launch New Lines of Popcorn at Walmart. In our last coverage on the upcoming WBD transaction and its implications for AT&T post-close, we had provided a detailed estimate on WBD's upside potential attributable to AT&T shareholders post-close. Zaslav hasnt been shy in making changes that align with the Warner Bros. One of the keys to HBO's growth is international markets, where it has lagged behind Netflix and others. Leading up to WBDs second quarter earnings report, a number of equities analysts issued ratings statements and reduced price objectives for the company, including Cowen ($24, May 12), Bank of America ($23, July 14) and Moffett Nathanson ($18, July 22). ET. Over the last four years, Apple has budgeted $315 billion to stock buybacks. Also, the company has started to benefit from the cost synergies, which partially mitigated the downsides. Apple, one of the largest tech giants in the world, designs and manufactures cell phones, laptops, and smart devices. According to the forecast released by AT&T and Discovery, the new entity would have revenues of $52 billion and an EBITDA of $14 billion in 2023, which implies an EBITDA margin of almost 27 percent. Discovery strategic shift. If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Together, these adverse developments impacted Warner Bros. He called out this months blowout debut of the game Hogwarts Legacy, and announced a new deal for multiple Lord of the Rings movies further out. What's been going on and is now the time to sell out of the stock? The combination of issued Spinco Debt Securities and cash proceeds from Spinco Financing Agreements provided to AT&T as part of transaction step #2 must total $43 billion, which represents the total consideration paid by Spinco to AT&T in exchange for its equity interests in the assets and liabilities of WarnerMedia (i.e. So, in order to really do a split, you are going to have to create enough demand for that 1.7 billion for an AT&T shareholder base that is dividend-focused retail investors and income-focused funds, which represent 60 to 70 percent of the telecom conglomerates total investors and likely would not participate in this structure, the AT&T CFO explained. The estimated transaction value takes into consideration the closing price of $25.37 per share for Discovery Series A common stock as of March 9th, multiplied by Upon completion of the merger, each Spinco common stock issued under transaction step #4 and distributed to existing AT&T shareholders as of record date under transaction step #5 will automatically convert into 0.24 shares of WBD common stock. Investors should also consider that producing streaming content is costly, and WBD assumed a great deal of debt when it took on Warner Brothers. On the closing date of the transaction, anticipated to be in April, AT&T shareholders will receive, on a tax-free basis, an estimated 0.24 shares of stock in Stock Market Sell-Off: Is Warner Bros. Step 2 Issuance of Spinco Debt Securities - Prior to AT&T's distribution of rights to shares of WBD common stock to existing AT&T shareholders as of record date and the final merger completion, the Magallanes, Inc. Spinco will issue debt securities ("Spinco Debt Securities") to AT&T and distribute all or some of the cash proceeds received from borrowings by Spinco under the "Spinco Financing Agreements" to represent its purchase of WarnerMedia assets and liabilities from AT&T. we also think that one of the big opportunities here is going to be churn reduction. Likewise, it's possible that Discovery had plenty of shareholders who didn't believe in the vision of a combined company and they could have sold their shares. In fact, Amazon is the sole company with a share price gain over that time frame, and it lags the S&P by more than 15%. Under the terms of the deal, which is structured as an all-stock transaction, AT&T would receive $43 billion in cash and debt with its shareholders controlling 71% of If you have taken a look at AT&T's latest 8K filling dated March 28th, you would notice that the filing registrant is "Magallanes, Inc.". The Wall Street Journal this month reported that Warner Bros. That's good news for a company that's heavily leveraged, after Discovery went deep into debt to afford to $43 billion price tag for Warners. When Discovery and AT&T announced their intent to merge Discovery and WarnerMedia, it made a lot of sense. Considering the latest disclosure of WBD transaction details (e.g. Shop Pay is an innovative payment solution developed by Shopify. The telecom giant also filed a 652-page Form 8K document detailing the transaction structure. we will continue to be very thoughtful about our spend. During the earnings call, management noted HBO Max streaming service recently reported a gain of three million subscribers. Several studies indicate consumers rate the companys streaming service as at or near the top in several categories. It's worth noting that these forecasts were before Discoverys merger announcement. Shares of AT&T ( T) - Get Free Report are higher on Monday, at last check about 8% up, after the company completed its merger with Discovery on Friday. Only about a quarter of the analysts rated the stock as a buy. AT&T stockholders will end up owning 71 percent of the new Warner Bros. In early Monday trading, the shares of the Last but not least, with the focus by inventors on WBDs streaming service, there is little discussion regarding the fact that much of WBDs revenue stems from cable subscribers, and cord-cutting remains an ongoing issue. Details on how the Biden administration will evaluate requests for the semiconductor incentives were released by the Commerce Department. To make the world smarter, happier, and richer. I'll be launching in the near future with a legacy discount for early subscribers and I'll be sharing more details as we ramp up to launch in the coming months. I will add that an investment in this company at this stage requires a bit of faith in managements ability to execute, as well as analysts aptitude in forecasting growth rates for Warner Bros. These offers do not represent all deposit accounts available. Warner Bros. In our previous coverage, we had determined the potential upside potential in WBD attributable to AT&T shareholders to be about 77% considering (i) AT&T's share price of about $24 at the time (late March), (ii) management's projected 2024 WBD revenues and EBITDA, as well as (iii) comparable peer valuation multiples: WBD Upside Potential Attributable to AT&T Shareholders (Author). By comparison, the S&P 500 index Transaction details disclosed are pointing to upsides in WBD attributable to participating AT&T shareholders of more than 77%, which is consistent with our previous analysis in late March. share conversion ratios, estimated WBD shares outstanding post-close, recent Discovery and AT&T closing share price, peer comps, etc.) Here are the key levels for NFLX has a projected net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio of 1.3 for 2022. Also see: Succession creator says upcoming fourth season will be its last. Warner Bros. Discovery a Buy? We have also identified and consolidated all that you need to know about how the transaction will take place based on the 8K filing so you don't have to spend your time-off going through 652-pages of legal and accounting jargons and instead skip right to the "need-to-knows" - key items to take note of include details on the transaction step plan, pre- and post-close share structure, transaction consideration to AT&T, as well as industry estimates to the transaction value post-close. However, both stocks will be attempting to catch up to well-heeled competition: AT&T in connectivity, and Discovery-plus-WarnerMedia in the streaming wars. In 2000, internet service provider America Online bought Time-Warner, Inc. to form AOL Time Warner, but when the dot-com bubble burst, that partnership dissolved quickly. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). An SEC filing last March, just prior to the merger, revealed that Discovery forecasts revenue from its U.S. linear TV business will decline by 4% per annum through Invest better with The Motley Fool. 16 Million Approved for Biden Student Loan Forgiveness Plan Will Supreme Court Uphold? Step 7 The Merger - Once transaction steps #1-7 are complete, Discovery's Drake Subsidiary, Inc. merger subsidiary will merge into Magallanes, Inc. Spinco, with the Spinco being the surviving "wholly owned subsidiary of WBD". Considering the record date is April 5th, we believe the transaction could close within a week's time at the earliest, considering AT&T's requirement to provide Discovery with a list of AT&T shareholders eligible for shares of WBD common stock at least five business days prior to the actual stock dividend distribution (i.e. However, just because it's probably the right move doesn't mean AT&T shareholders should be overjoyed. The new entity will focus on streaming services. The streaming media and telecom worlds were shaken Monday, when AT&T (T -0.63%) announced it would be spinning off its WarnerMedia division and combining it with Discovery (DISCA) (DISCK). We are the largest income investor and retiree community on Seeking Alpha with over 4600 members actively working together to make amazing retirements happen. These offers do not represent all available deposit, investment, loan or credit products. Groundbreaking Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot loses reelection bid, Amid layoffs, Salesforce reportedly has been paying Matthew McConaughey more than $10 million a year, Why microchips could make or break the electric vehicle revolution, Marc Benioffs Salesforce fairy tale is crumbling down around him, Theranoss Elizabeth Holmes gives birth to second baby, pushes to delay starting her 11-year prison term, AMC stock tumbles after 14th consecutive quarterly loss, fourth straight year in the red. For example, institutional investors who bought AT&T stock for other reasons -- such as its dividend -- might not want Warner Bros. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends ASML, Advanced Micro Devices, Apple, Fortinet, Intel, Qualcomm, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, and Warner Bros. Discovery+, added two million subscribers in the quarter, boosting its subscriber count to 24 million. Chief Executive David Zaslav said the company which oversees TV channels and streaming platforms like HBO, HBO Max, Discovery and Discovery+, DC Comics and some videogames would more than double the output from its studio segment this year. Warner Bros. James Gunn Reveals New Superman, Batman Movies and More, Warner Bros. Visit a quote page and your recently viewed tickers will be displayed here. Shares of Warner Bros. The company sits at 102 on the 2022 Fortune 500 list, making it a subject of considerable interest among investors of all Reading stock charts can be daunting at first, but here's how to make sense of it all. Discovery was word that DC could be restructured. Moreover, the merger resulted in WBD assuming a great deal of debt. After working in the energy industry for 18 years, he decided to change careers in 2016 and concentrate full-time on all aspects of writing. Discovery had done a nice job of consolidating the unscripted content portion of the media universe, but it was still a relative niche player in a world with emerging mega-bundles. Billy Duberstein owns shares of AT&T, Discovery (C shares), and Netflix. This might explain the initial fall in Warner Bros. In the big deal, expected to close during the second quarter, AT&T will next spin off WarnerMedia and merge it with Discovery, with AT&T shareholders set to receive an estimated 0.24 share in the new company for each AT&T share held. do not materially differ from the assumptions applied in our previous computation of estimated upside potential in WBD attributable to AT&T shareholders, we have not made any subsequent edits. The forward P/E for the company is 8.68x, and the 5-year PEG is 0.43x. Wall Street will soon take note of the news and analysts might revise their ratings. Discovery CEO David Zaslav Please. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Let the power of quality research drive your investment convictions. WBDs forward P/E and 5-year PEG ratio, if accurate, indicate the stock is trading at a bargain. There will be three trading options available for AT&T shareholders beginning April 4th (or technically, post April 5th market close when an existing AT&T shareholder on record date is marked eligible for the right to shares of WBD common stock post-close): All transactions taken place during the two-way trading period under "T WD" and "WBDWV" "will settle after the closing date of the [WBD] transaction". The conversion will ultimately result in 71% AT&T shareholder ownership in WBD, with the remaining 29% ownership in WBD attributable to Discovery shareholders. Streaming's share of total television usage increased in March, garnering nearly 30% of all hours viewed. The consensus 12-month price target of the five analysts rating the stock is $37.25. The Hollywood Reporter is a part of Penske Media Corporation. Read More About: AT&T The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. To balance that debt, at the end of 2021, WBD had a bit over $4.1 billion in cash. The new management is trying hard to turn around the ship. WBD was trading at $24.88 before markets closed for the holiday weekend. That same study revealed that when questioned regarding their level of satisfaction among SVOD services, HBOMax received the highest score. The Coke vs. Pepsi debate doesn't just apply to the supermarket the brands are also rivals in the stock market. Considering the intense competition in this space, I believe caution at this stage is warranted. Lawrence Nga has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. 2023 GOBankingRates. Discovery shareholders would own 29 percent of the new entity, while AT&T shareholders would hold a 71 percent stake in the new company. Discovery. If content is king, an argument can be made that WBD takes the crown. AT&T ( T) - Get Free Report and Discovery ( DISCA) - Get Free Report made headlines on Merger Monday, but with a bit of a twist. Ahead of the Warner Bros. While streaming would bring long-term growth, it also means more investment into content creation. See which stock you should consider. People may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Upon closing, Magallane, Inc. Spinco will merge with "Drake Subsidiary, Inc.", the wholly owned "merger subsidiary" of Discovery's to create WBD. ET, Why AT&T, Fortinet, and TSMC Are No-Brainer Buys Right Now, This Dividend Stock Is a Safe Bet Regardless of Market Conditions. , we have better refined our estimates merger news may own shares of the news and might... Its last had a bit over $ 4.1 billion in cash would bring long-term,... Final earnings report for Discovery as a standalone company T announced their intent to merge Discovery and &! Should consider their own unique investment discovery stock after merger and consider Seeking advice from an investment.! In April the past 18 months while delivering outstanding operational results has brought us this... 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